HOW MUCH BORDER FENCE DOES $5.7 BILLION BUY?

Based on the cost of border barriers already completed, $5.7 Billion should just about seal the entire US-Mexico Border. According to a recent US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) briefing (slide above), between 2007 - 2009 (2 years) they built 400 miles of Border Barrier in support of US Customs and Border Protection at a total cost of $1.3B. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Cumulative Price Change since 2010 to today is 15.16% (yearly average inflation rate has been 1.78%). Doing the math that means $1.3B of 2009 dollars is ~$1.5B in 2019 dollars ($1,497,042,502.84 to be exact) so $5.7B should buy another 1523 miles of border wall. Given USACE has already built 400 miles, if Trump builds another 1523 miles then he should have 1923 miles completed. The entire United States and Mexico border is only 1954 miles so that leaves only 31 more miles to build to completely seal the US-Mexico border 100%.

All I did was take the briefing slide from the USACE briefing (the briefing is posted on the Army Engineer Association website under the August 2018 Industry Seminar) and extrapolate from the numbers there to estimate the cost. In the construction World, past experience or analogous estimating is a recognized method for estimating the cost of future work of similar scope but that number would be the contracting costs so would include any access roads but not land purchases nor would it account for significant differences in terrain.  I can’t speak to what other “experts” estimate, only how much the existing 400 miles of barrier actually cost. To be honest, I don’t contemplate all 1954 miles of border will require fencing nor do I expect the unfinished portions of barrier be as easy or inexpensive to construct as what has been completed.  I do believe the $50 - $70 Billion some Members of Congress are throwing around wildly exaggerate the cost and that the actually cost will be in $7 - $10 Billion range for what really requires fencing.  Just something to ponder.

Washington DC 2018 Yearly Homicide Statistics Just Out - DC Regaining their "Murder Capital of the National" Mantle

Today, New Year’s Day 1 January 2019, the Washington Post published the homicide statistics for Washington, DC and the surrounding Maryland and Virginia adjacent suburbs in an article entitled: "Homicides spike in District as shootings become more lethal, police say" . The stats once again clearly demonstrated that any WaPo reader so naïve as to believes the myth that onerous gun laws yield safer communities needed to look no further than the stats in this WaPo 1 Jan 19 article to be disabused of that fantasy. Using the data in that article and the latest Census Bureau population numbers, I calculated the homicide rates of DC and the adjacent Maryland and Virginia suburbs.  Here are the results:

Maryland:  4.3 Homicides/100,000 citizens – 85 Homicides

(Montgomery Co Population = 1,058,810 – 19 Homicides; PG Co = 912,756 – 66)

Virginia:  2.3 Homicides/100,000 citizens – 35 Homicides

(Arlington Population = 234,965 - 3 Homicides; Fairfax = 1,148433 - 14; Alexandria = 160,035 - 4)

DC:  22.8 Homicides/100,000 citizens - 160 Homicides

(702,455 Population – 160 Homicides)

This means a DC resident, where firearms are virtually impossible to own, is almost 10 times more likely to be a homicide victim then one of us Gun Tottin Virginians who live in a state where gun ownership is almost unrestricted.  Even a Marylander with very restrictive gun laws is over five times less likely to be a homicide victim than a DC resident; much better than DC but a Marylander is still almost twice as likely to be a homicide victim than one of us Virginia Gun Totters!

This article clearly shows the breathtaking disparity in homicide rates between the jurisdictions of DC or Maryland that not only don’t have the death penalty but where criminals have little chance of being confronted by a law abiding citizen who just might have a gun of their own and Virginia where gun ownership is almost unrestricted and the only question for murders is “do you prefer the needle or the chair?” That same WaPo article noted that 40% of DC homicide offenders had a previous gun arrest

 

The statistics clearly demonstrate that contrary to liberal rhetoric, it is an “inconvenient truth” that “guns actually do make us safer.” Ask any Bostonian who was directed to “shelter in place” during the Marathon Bomber manhunt how they feel about owning a gun now!  Could it be that homicidal maniacs would much rather commit their crimes in jurisdictions like DC and MD without the death penalty and are not so anxious to attack law-abiding VA citizens as they might be "packing heat?"